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Property Bubble to Burst? A recent article in Scene Magazine states "We can say with confidence that the growth in the real estate market is not a bubble about to burst, but a trend with a long term stability". Florida's Gulf Coast holds possibilities and promise for a wide range of income levels and lifestyle options. New communities taking shape in Sarasota, Manatee and Charlotte counties offer an atmosphere of resort recreation. Urban condominiums enable working singles and couples the opportunity to own a residence near the office. Settlements east of I-75 beckon to families and to those who find fulfillment in acreage and open spaces. Three new golf communities in the Sarasota area are raising the bar on course design and level of play. We haven't simply grown - we have elevated our quality of life. Our foundation is solid and strong. Our planning for the future has been thorough and inclusive. Our implementation is prudent and progressive. Hardly the characteristics of a bubble. We see significant and important trends developing and feel confident the long-term fundamentals for housing remain excellent into the foreseeable future. TRANSFERRING WEALTH TO REAL ESTATE Perhaps the largest trend spurring the growth of real estate sales is the move away from traditional portfolio investment practices to real estate holdings. In the May 31, 2004 issue of Barron's, author Steve Bergsman wrote, "Investors are losing confidence in their stock portfolios and transferring wealth to more tangible things, like vacation homes where they can entertain the kids and Grandkids." It is also true that we enjoy an economy that is not fundamentally earned income based. Our wealth is more fluid, and traditionally, if rates do increase, many buyers will finance their homes using cash. Buyers have the luxury of responding immediately to changing conditions. BABY-BOOMERS, SENIORS AND SINGLES There is also a marked demand for primary and secondary residences from affluent baby-boomers. The potential of this market cannot be understated. The same Barron's article stated, "More and more we see baby boomers buying up for retirement." The same holds true for retired seniors. Many are choosing to downsize their primary residence and buy condominiums in downtown and resort areas as their secondary home. We have seen both trends substantiated in our own downtown market, along with an increase in the number of singles. Our employment numbers are increasing at the greatest rate in our history, further bringing new, younger buyers. No longer are we just dependent upon retirees, tourists and those supported by the service industry. This new, younger working population broadens the different lifestyles by different price points, whether they be distinguished by beach or bay, high-rise penthouses, cottages or lake, nearness to schools, on the golf course, or a peaceful couple of acres with a citrus grove. TECHNOLOGY EXTENDS ONES BEACH Worldwide, established professionals are no longer tied to homes near corporate headquarters. Nicholas Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, notes that the rise of technology has done much to spur the growth of the secondary housing market. "A day at the beach, or at least the beach house, no longer precludes a full day on the job." MODERATE INCREASE IN INTEREST RATES National real estate trends indicate that although mortgage rates are going up, they will increase modestly. Modest fluctuations in interest rates coupled with realistic pricing will show steady appreciation. Certainly a rapid rise in interest rates would hurt housing demand. The Kiplinger Letter of June 11, 2004 states, "Mortgage rates will go up fairly modestly, remaining affordable. By December 2005, expect a 7.2% rate for a 30-year mortgage up from 6.3% now. That will still be fairly low by historical standards." REALISTIC PRICING WITH SLOWING APPRECIATION Realistic pricing in this market is imperative. In his June 13, 2004 column in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune, Kenneth Harney emphasizes that home appreciation rates will eventually slow and writes, "The good news here is that in home real estate, moderate and steady appreciation is good." He goes on to say, "slower real estate appreciation means more people will be able to buy your house." We are now predicting single-digit price appreciation levelling off from the recent unsustainable double-digit rate. ROBUST GROWTH IN 20 YEARS The future growth statistics for the southwest coast of Florida are healthy. A May 1, 2004 Florida Trend article estimates that by 2025, 4.8 million people will live in Florida's southwest region. That's up more than 1 million residents, or 32%, from the current population. Sarasota County will experience 12% of that growth and Manatee County will house 14%, for a total of 260,000 new homebuyers. Charlotte County expects an additional 70,000 residents. WELL EXECUTED AND TIMELY PLANNING Our growth in both new construction and existing home sales is accompanied by sound planning principles and the commitment of our local government officials to provide the infrastructure necessary to sustain this growth. The recently passed Sarasota County 2050 plan is an incentive based, land use plan that will manage and shape future growth in the County. The City of Sarasota has also developed a 2020 Master Plan, which recognizes that "...Sarasota is a relatively young city and this plan and zoning code will provide the guidance and discipline for the City to gradually blossom into a period of graceful maturity." (Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company). "Imagine Manatee," The Manatee County Visioning Project, is bringing together leaders and citizens to create a vision for the next 50 years. Proactive planning throughout the Gulf Coast will ensure the enhancement of our quality of life in all our various communities. KNOWLEDGEABLE AND SAVVY BUYERS There will be no shortage of buyers. Although the amount of inventory varies. it will keep pace. As supply along the coast decreases, buyers will be drawn inland to areas east of I-75, particularly Lakewood Ranch, the State Road 64 corridor and the area north of the Manatee River. The Florida Trend publication states that much of what is driving the market - beside interest rates - is the lack of land availability. Consumers have recognised this shortage and feeling a sense of urgency are pushing up the market. This combined with modest mortgage rates will ensure a continuing dynamic real estate economy. Click here to download the latest in depth research report on the Sarasota Property Market Click here to download the latest in depth research report on the Orlando Property Market   For further information on how to obtain specialist advice on relocating or buying property in Florida, the advantages and disadvantages of different locations, and importantly How to obtain details of  specialised fully licensed Real Estate Agents, experienced in explaining options from a British perspective. Click here     Thinking about buying a property in Florida - click here   Thinking about selling a property in Florida - click here   Thinking about emigrating to Florida - click here   Thinking about retirement to Florida - click here   Just want to be sent details of suitable agents with excellent testimonials and a proven track record of working with British buyers – click here Just want details of every available property in Florida – click here   Andrew Bartlett an acknowledged expert on property trends and relocation in Florida, writes articles and answers readers’ questions for several British publications including Florida Magazine, Escape Magazine, Place in the Sun, Sunday Times, America, and The Red guide to buying Property in America and is regularly consulted by journalists and broadcasters. His consumer web guides have received numerous accolades.   Andrew was a Senior Government Official for 20 years before relocating to Florida several years ago where he was headhunted to set up specialist British property and relocation teams for Coldwell Banker and Remax - America’s largest estate agents. He then established a uniquely impartial and independent relocation and property briefing company working between Britain and Florida. He has written a number of watchdog style articles on overseas property and emigration selling techniques.